12 October 1997
Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
Richard Foster

Dual Disaster: U.S. Policy Futile

"Dual containment" sounds like it might be the name of an elaborate Packers defense designed to work against both the pass and the run. In fact, it's the name of a Clinton administration strategy that's effective against neither of the two threats it's designed to counter: Iran and Iraq. But, the administration clings to this strategy as stubbornly as a diehard Packers fan clings to the hope of another Super Bowl victory.

Iran and Iraq have more in common than the first three letters of their names. Both are Middle East nations believed by U.S. intelligence agencies to be seeking so-called ABC weapons: atomic, biological and chemical weapons of mass destruction. Beyond that, Iraq is at least a potential threat to Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and some of its other oil-producing neighbors.

Hence dual containment, which is supposed to isolate, weaken and ultimately tame these two Middle East rogues. To this end, the United States has promoted a United Nations economic embargo against Iraq, and last year Congress passed a law imposing economic sanctions against any company, foreign or domestic, that does business with Iran.

Dual containment isn't working because few if any countries in Europe or Asia are willing to support it, and without the help of many nations, any policy of economic isolation is doomed. The 36-year-old embargo of Cuba, for example, has failed because virtually nobody but the U.S. is participating in it. Even a blockade supported by many nations will inevitably have leaks.

The containment-cum-isolation of Iran and Iraq is particularly difficult because there is too much money to be made there. Energy experts say Iran has the world's second-largest gas reserves after Russia, and Iraq is sitting on top of the second-largest oil reserves in the world after Saudi Arabia.

It is utterly absurd for the U.S. to pass laws requiring foreign countries and companies to ignore those oil and gas reserves. Such laws invite defiance. Last month, for example, a French firm, Total Oil Co., signed a $2 billion contract to explore natural gas fields in Iran. As French Premier Lionel Jospin pointedly noted, "American laws apply in the United States; they do not apply in France." Other countries in Europe and Asia say much the same thing.

It is possible, and even proper, to be indignant about the greed of foreign governments and to engage in a lot of heavy breathing about the evil of doing business with outlaw regimes. But public officials are not elected to pose for holy pictures; they are supposed to develop strategies that are not only honorable, but effective. They should come up with strategies that achieve their intended objectives.

The U.S. would have a better chance of enlisting the support of its allies if it lowered its sights a little and sought, for example, compliance with a narrow ban on certain categories of weapons or weapons-related technology. That would make it easier for Europe and Asia to cooperate.

If the U.S. wants to act on its own, it ought to use its diplomatic contacts in Iran and Iraq more aggressively. If nothing else, that would open a fuller and more effective channel of communication with these two countries and who knows? maybe find some common ground.

Beyond that, the U.S. ought to pull back from its indiscriminate, extravagant and hasty use of economic sanctions. Some 188 unilateral economic measures have been enacted or proposed against 42 countries by U.S. federal, state and local governments since 1993, according to USA Engage, which describes itself as a coalition of more than 600 U.S. businesses, farm organizations and trade associations.

USA Engage believes the economic weapon has a legitimate place in this country's arsenal, but sensibly argues that sanctions ought to be given "the same deliberate, sober consideration that is given to a decision that commits U.S. troops to battle."

Obviously, that kind of consideration wasn't given during the formulation of dual containment. As a result, the country isolated was neither Iran nor Iraq, but the U.S. Dual containment as a strategy ought to be taken out of this country's diplomatic playbook.

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