25 May 1997
The Washington Post
(C)1997, Los Angeles Times Syndicate
By Jeane Kirkpatrick

The Best Hope for China

The annual debate on whether to renew China's status as a "Most Favored Nation" got underway this past week with President Clinton's announcement that renewing existing trade ties with China is "the best way to bring China into the family of nations and to secure our interests and our ideals." Accompanying comments from the White House also suggested that a hard fight in Congress will be needed if the president is to carry the day. Of course, the more formidable the opposition seems, the greater the administration's victory will appear to be.

This year's opposition to MFN renewal is considerable and vocal, and its backers have some clout in Washington, but I believe they are unlikely to win. A portion of the Christian Right has joined some human rights and labor groups in opposing the renewal. They emphasize China's continuing violations of Chinese rights and American values, its repression of Tibetans and other religious minorities, its belligerent actions in the South China Sea, the missiles it fired off Taiwan's shores, its intensive military buildup, its sale of controlled technologies in spite of its nonproliferation pledges not to do so, its jailing of dissidents under harsh conditions, its forced abortions and coercive population-control program and its use of prison labor.

Opponents pose the question: Should the U.S. government renew China's Most Favored Nation status considering all these violations of good conduct? It is a good question.

The problem with their argument is that denying MFN status cannot achieve the goals opponents desire. The whole issue has become extremely confused. The real question is not, and never has been, whether we should grant "favored" -- much less "most favored" -- status to China, but whether Congress should grant Americans the opportunity to trade with China on the same basis as with other nations.

MFN status provides access to U.S. markets with the lowest possible tariffs -- about 5 percent. Today all but eight countries in the world enjoy MFN status: Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Cuba, Cambodia, Laos, North Korea, Vietnam and former Yugoslavia -- a strangely anachronistic group that omits Iran, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Burma and several other current scourges. I believe the annual MFN debate over China is nearly irrelevant to our moral commitments, our national security and our economic interests.

It is certainly true that a number of China's policies are deeply offensive to many Americans. But it is also true that the United States provides low tariffs to almost every nation, not only because we believe it is good for them but also because we believe it is good for us, indeed, for everyone.

MFN policy was devised to deal with the Soviet Union, a state in which the government had total control of a closed society and economy. (The government of Cuba also has such control.) Under such circumstances trade could not benefit the people nor contribute to the development of a more free economy, nor "open" the society. It could only enrich the government and give it more leverage.

The situation is very different in China, a country that was deliberately and dramatically "opened" by Deng Xiaoping in the late 1980s. It was opened to foreign travelers and investment, to foreign ideas and foreign students. Tens of thousands of Chinese were sent abroad to study. Crucial elements of market systems were built into the Chinese economy. Rewards were linked to work, real if limited personal decisions were permitted about where to work, who to work for. Some competition, profit, choice and individualism were built into the system -- with predictable results.

The Chinese economy has grown at a dazzling 13 percent a year. Living standards have risen as well. China has become another Asian tiger. By permitting the freedom necessary for economic growth and modernization, its policies have doubled the economy.

Peter Berger described the Asian model of capitalist development in his book, "The Capitalist Revolution." That model features the "relentless onward-and-upward thrust" of a Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore and, before them, Japan. It features dramatic economic growth, very high productivity, rising living standards. It features an economy open to the world, elimination of severe poverty and progressive political change.

The East Asian evidence, says Berger, provides limited but real support for the thesis that successful development of industrial capitalism also encourages development of democracy. Rule of law is an essential element of a developed, modern, capitalist industrial system. So is broad participation in many decisions. In this environment the taste for freedom grows.

Involvement with the West and with the capitalist systems of the West also reinforces the associated patterns of thought and behavior. In Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, Japan, Hong Kong, the "Asian" model of economic development was accompanied by sustained economic success and increased political choice. Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand are now moving down the same path.

Nothing is inevitable. But we may note that China is moving through a process similar to that of most modern Asian societies. Like them, China is developing a very successful economy and an increasing sense of pride and accomplishment. To be sure, it could turn into fascism, but it could also turn into another Singapore or even Taiwan.

It is in the interest of the United States as well as all China's neighbors that this Asian giant remain open to the world -- involved, successful, peaceful and, eventually, democratic.

A policy that makes China a "Least Favored Nation" is the least likely to encourage evolution of the China we hope for.

I believe MFN policy, being outdated, should be abandoned and replaced by policies more relevant to American hopes and to China's well-being.

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